Lecture 13: The Seller’s Supply Rule — Price = Marginal Cost
2026
What we covered last time:
. . .
🎯 Today: We formalize the seller’s supply rule and explore what makes the supply curve shift.
👉 The supply rule is the producer’s equivalent of the demand curve we derived in Lecture 8!
The Seller’s Supply Rule
A profit-maximizing firm in perfect competition should produce at the level of output where:
\[\text{Price} = \text{Marginal Cost} \qquad (P = MC)\]
on the rising portion of the MC curve, provided \(P \geq AVC\).
Why? The cost-benefit principle (from Lecture 3!) applied to each unit:
👉 Keep producing as long as \(P \geq MC\). Stop when the next unit would cost more than it earns.
This is just marginal analysis — the same logic we’ve used since the very beginning of the course!
The bottle factory (from the textbook): P = €0.35/bottle, FC = €40/day
| Going from → to | Extra bottles | Revenue per bottle (MR = P) | MC per bottle | MR vs MC | Decision |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 → 100 | 100 | €0.35 | €0.10 | MR > MC | ✅ Produce |
| 100 → 200 | 100 | €0.35 | €0.10 | MR > MC | ✅ Produce |
| 200 → 300 | 100 | €0.35 | €0.20 | MR > MC | ✅ Produce |
| 300 → 400 | 100 | €0.35 | €0.30 | MR > MC | ✅ Produce |
| 400 → 500 | 100 | €0.35 | €0.40 | MR < MC | ❌ Stop! |
Source: Course textbook (sebenta), Table 10
👉 Optimal output: Q* = 400 bottles/day. At Q = 400, the MC of the next batch (€0.40) exceeds the price (€0.35), so expanding further would reduce profit.
💡 At Q = 300, MC = €0.20 < P = €0.35 — there’s still €0.15/bottle of “profit margin” to capture. That’s why the firm doesn’t stop at 300!
MC is U-shaped — it may intersect the price line twice. Which intersection is correct?
At Q₁ (falling MC): if you produce one more unit, MC is still falling — you can increase profit further! At Q* (rising MC): producing one more unit would cost more than the price. This is the true optimum.
The Complete Supply Rule for a Competitive Firm
The individual supply curve is the MC curve above AVC_min.
This rule answers three questions at once:
| Question | Answer |
|---|---|
| How much to produce? | Where \(P = MC\) (rising portion) |
| Whether to produce? | Only if \(P \geq AVC\) |
| How much profit? | \(\pi = (P - ATC) \times Q^*\) |
👉 One rule, three answers — that’s the power of marginal analysis!
The textbook shows what happens when the bottle price rises from €0.35 to €0.45:
| Q (bottles/day) | MC per bottle | Profit at P=€0.35 | Profit at P=€0.45 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | — | −40 | −40 |
| 100 | 0.10 | −15 | −5 |
| 200 | 0.10 | 10 | 30 |
| 300 | 0.20 | 25 | 55 |
| 400 | 0.30 | 30 | 70 |
| 500 | 0.40 | 25 | 75 |
| 600 | 0.50 | 10 | 70 |
| 700 | 0.60 | −15 | 55 |
Source: Course textbook (sebenta), Tables 10 & 11
👉 Higher price → produce more → earn more profit. The firm moves up along its MC/supply curve.
What if wages rise from €10/hour to €12/hour (keeping P = €0.35)?
| Q | LC at €10/hr | LC at €12/hr | TC (w=10) | TC (w=12) | Profit (w=10) | Profit (w=12) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 40 | 40 | −40 | −40 |
| 100 | 10 | 12 | 50 | 52 | −15 | −17 |
| 200 | 20 | 24 | 60 | 64 | 10 | 6 |
| 300 | 40 | 48 | 80 | 88 | 25 | 17 |
| 400 | 70 | 84 | 110 | 124 | 30 | 16 |
| 500 | 110 | 132 | 150 | 172 | 25 | 3 |
Source: Course textbook (sebenta), Tables 10 & 12
👉 Higher wages → MC rises at every Q → firm produces less at the same price. The supply curve has shifted left!
The textbook also shows: when FC rises from €40 to €70 (price stays at €0.35):
. . .
Fixed Costs Do Not Shift the Supply Curve in the Short Run
MC depends only on variable costs. Since FC doesn’t affect MC, it doesn’t change the \(P = MC\) intersection, and the supply curve stays in the same position.
FC affects profit (and the shutdown/exit decision in the long run), but not the quantity supplied at each price.
👉 Movement along the supply curve: caused by a change in the product’s own price
👉 Shift of the supply curve: caused by a change in input prices (wages, materials), technology, or number of firms
Shift RIGHT (increase in supply) ➡️
More is supplied at every price when:
Tourism: New low-cost airline tech → cheaper flights → supply of flights shifts right
Shift LEFT (decrease in supply) ⬅️
Less is supplied at every price when:
Tourism: New tourist tax → higher costs for hotels → supply shifts left
Left: When the product’s own price rises, the firm moves along its supply curve → \(Q\) increases.
Right: When input costs rise (wages, energy), the entire supply curve shifts left → less supplied at every price.
💡 Exactly the same logic as demand (Lecture 8): own-price = movement along; other factors = shift!
Example 1: Minimum wage increase 💰
Portugal’s minimum wage has been rising. For tourism businesses:
Effect: fewer beds at every price level, or higher prices to compensate
Example 2: Online booking technology 💻
Platforms like Booking.com, Airbnb:
Effect: more rooms at every price level — which has been the trend!
. . .
👉 Both examples change variable costs, which shifts MC and therefore the supply curve.
Why is the supply of tourism services different in summer vs winter?
The \(P = MC\) rule explains it:
☀️ Summer:
❄️ Winter:
. . .
💡 Combined with demand shifts: In summer, both supply and demand are higher. In winter, both shift left. The net effect on price depends on which shift is larger — this is market equilibrium (Lecture 17)!
Throughout the course, we’ve built mirror-image tools for consumers and producers:
| Concept | Consumer (Demand) | Producer (Supply) |
|---|---|---|
| Goal | Maximize utility | Maximize profit |
| Constraint | Budget (\(M\)) | Cost structure (\(TC\)) |
| Individual curve | From utility maximization | From \(P = MC\) (above AVC) |
| Curve shape | Downward-sloping 📉 | Upward-sloping 📈 |
| Movement along | Own price changes | Own price changes |
| Shift | Income, preferences, other prices | Input costs, technology, # firms |
| Surplus | Consumer surplus (area below D, above P) | Producer surplus (next lecture!) |
| Market curve | Horizontal sum of individual D | Horizontal sum of individual S |
Today’s Key Takeaways:
Connection: We now have the individual firm’s supply curve. Next lecture: producer surplus and how to build the market supply from individual firms.
Next (Lecture 14, April 9): Producer Surplus, Market Supply, and Linear Supply 📈
Practice Time! ✏️
The supply rule, cost changes, and supply shifts.
Question: A sardine restaurant in Lisbon operates in a competitive market. Currently, \(P = €12\) per meal and \(MC = €10\) at the restaurant’s current output level. The restaurant should:
A. Keep output the same — it is already maximizing profit
B. Increase output — producing more will add to profit
C. Decrease output — the restaurant is overproducing
D. Shut down — it is not covering costs
Answer: B
Since \(P = €12 > MC = €10\), each additional meal earns €12 in revenue but costs only €10. The restaurant should expand output until MC rises to meet \(P = €12\). At the current output, there is still “room” to increase profit by producing more.
Only when \(P = MC\) should the firm stop expanding.
Question: The Portuguese government introduces a new tourist tax of €2 per hotel night, paid by the hotel. Which of the following is correct?
A. The hotel’s supply curve shifts right by €2
B. The hotel’s supply curve shifts left (up by €2) — at each price, less is supplied
C. The hotel moves along its existing supply curve
D. The hotel’s demand curve shifts left
Answer: B
The tax increases the variable cost of each room-night by €2. This shifts MC up by €2 at every output level, which means the supply curve shifts left (equivalently, upward by €2).
At any given market price, the hotel now produces less because \(P = MC\) is reached at a lower quantity. This is a shift of supply, not a movement along it (C is wrong), because the change is in costs, not the product’s own price. And it’s the supply curve, not demand (D is wrong).
A small boat tour company in Cascais faces the following situation. The market price for a coastal tour is €40 per ticket. The firm’s cost structure is:
| Tours/day (Q) | FC (€) | VC (€) | TC (€) | MC (€/tour) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 300 | 0 | 300 | — |
| 1 | 300 | 15 | 315 | 15 |
| 2 | 300 | 28 | 328 | 13 |
| 3 | 300 | 39 | 339 | 11 |
| 4 | 300 | 52 | 352 | 13 |
| 5 | 300 | 70 | 370 | 18 |
| 6 | 300 | 96 | 396 | 26 |
| 7 | 300 | 133 | 433 | 37 |
| 8 | 300 | 184 | 484 | 51 |
Hypothetical illustrative example
a) Using the \(P = MC\) rule, what is the profit-maximizing output at \(P = €40\)? Calculate profit.
b) Now fuel costs rise, adding €10 to the MC of each tour. Write the new MC column. What is the new profit-maximizing output? Calculate the new profit.
c) Has the supply curve shifted or has the firm moved along it? Explain.
d) At the original cost structure, what is the lowest price at which this firm would still produce? (What is the shutdown price?)
e) Draw (describe) what the firm’s supply curve looks like: at what price does it “start,” and what does it follow?
a) Apply \(P = MC\) on the rising portion:
| Q | MC | P vs MC |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | 11 | P = 40 > MC → produce |
| 4 | 13 | P = 40 > MC → produce |
| 5 | 18 | P = 40 > MC → produce |
| 6 | 26 | P = 40 > MC → produce |
| 7 | 37 | P = 40 > MC → produce |
| 8 | 51 | P = 40 < MC → stop! |
Q* = 7 tours/day (last tour where \(P \geq MC\)).
Profit: \(\pi = TR - TC = (40 \times 7) - 433 = 280 - 433 = -€153\)
The firm makes a loss of €153/day. But should it still operate? AVC at Q = 7: \(\frac{133}{7} = €19\). Since \(P = €40 > AVC = €19\): yes, operate! Shutdown loss would be −€300 (= FC), which is worse.
b) New MC = old MC + €10:
| Q | Old MC | New MC | P = 40 vs New MC |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 15 | 25 | 40 > 25 → produce |
| 2 | 13 | 23 | 40 > 23 → produce |
| 3 | 11 | 21 | 40 > 21 → produce |
| 4 | 13 | 23 | 40 > 23 → produce |
| 5 | 18 | 28 | 40 > 28 → produce |
| 6 | 26 | 36 | 40 > 36 → produce |
| 7 | 37 | 47 | 40 < 47 → stop! |
New Q* = 6 tours/day (down from 7).
New VC at Q = 6: old VC + 6 × €10 = €96 + €60 = €156. New TC = 300 + 156 = €456.
New profit: \(\pi = (40 \times 6) - 456 = 240 - 456 = -€216\) (loss worsened from −€153 to −€216).
c) This is a shift of the supply curve, not a movement along it. The price didn’t change (still €40) — what changed was the input cost (fuel). Higher variable costs shift MC upward, which shifts the supply curve left. At the same price, the firm now supplies fewer tours (6 instead of 7).
d) The shutdown price = \(AVC_{\min}\).
Calculate AVC at each Q:
| Q | VC | AVC = VC/Q |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 15 | 15.00 |
| 2 | 28 | 14.00 |
| 3 | 39 | 13.00 |
| 4 | 52 | 13.00 |
| 5 | 70 | 14.00 |
| 6 | 96 | 16.00 |
Shutdown price = \(AVC_{\min}\) = €13 (at Q = 3–4). Below €13, the firm should produce nothing.
e) The firm’s supply curve:
The supply curve starts at the shutdown point (P = €13, Q ≈ 3–4) and follows MC upward.
April 9, 2026: Producer Surplus, Market Supply, and Linear Supply 📈
We’ll introduce producer surplus (the supply-side mirror of consumer surplus), build market supply from individual firms, and work with linear supply equations.
Questions? 🙋
📧 paulo.fagandini@ext.universidadeeuropeia.pt
Next class: Wednesday, April 9, 2026
Economics of Tourism | Lecture 13